Friday, July 10, 2015

Common Sense, Part VIII: Facts and Figures

Having already addressed the deficiencies of the British constitution, the shortcomings of hereditary monarchy, and the viability and necessity of independence in previous sections, Thomas Paine turned in the fourth and last part of Common Sense, weighing in at a respectable thirty-two paragraphs, to what I’ll call the “nuts and bolts” of a successful campaign for separation. Whereas in section three Paine endeavoured to convince his readers, among other things, that independence of the Thirteen Colonies from Britain was both a possibility and an imperative, the paragraphs that followed (under the heading “Of the Present Ability of America, with some miscellaneous Reflections”) attempted to weigh the same prospect in terms of the resources required and some of its potentially beneficial effects. To that end Paine deployed arguments that touched upon economic stimulation, demographics, and diplomacy, and even made use of a remarkably thorough cost/benefit analysis of naval shipbuilding. Independence, Paine seemed keen to get across by whatever means, would be a boon to the colonies. It could not be achieved without following certain steps and incurring certain risks, he freely admitted, but the potential economic growth it could generate, and the looming political crises it could help avoid, seemed to him well worth the cost. Doubtless he hoped his analysis of the expenses and profits of separation would strike the average American colonist – thrifty, hard-working, and risk-averse – in much the same way.

After again declaring, as he had on more than one occasion in Common Sense, that the independence of the Thirteen Colonies from British authority was inevitable, Paine began section four by exhorting his fellow colonists to take account of some of their material circumstances and decide from themselves whether his common refrain was merited or not. “Let us,” he wrote in the second paragraph, “in order to remove mistakes, take a general survey of things, and endeavour, if possible, to find out the very time” at which the colonies might achieve the necessary degree of “ripeness” for independence. Paine believed the present (January, 1776) to be sufficiently ripe, and attempted to guide his readers to a similar conclusion. The first circumstance he seized upon as being in favour of separation had to do with population. While, he admitted in paragraph three, no single colony possessed either the raw manpower or the proportion of adequately trained and experienced men to repel a British offensive on its own the thirteen acting in chorus presented an all-but insurmountable barrier to any attempt at subjugation. Indeed, the balance as he depicted it between success in unity and failure in autonomy seemed so delicate – “the whole, when united, can accomplish the matter, and either more, or, less than this, might be fatal in its effects” – that the creation of a Continental Army could easily be viewed as nothing short of an act of providence. Alone the colonies possessed no hope of success against British bayonets, and combined they were unstoppable; true or not, this would surely have struck many colonists as a powerful endorsement of colonial unity and further confirmation that independence was eminently possible.

Paine furthered his claim for the serendipitous demographic situation of the Thirteen Colonies circa 1776 when addressing their potential as a naval power. Because said colonies were, in the late-18th century, nominally part of the British Empire, and because the Royal Navy at that time was virtually unrivalled among contemporary maritime forces, there had never been much reason for Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia or Massachusetts to develop anything more than shipping fleets. Britain, as of what is commonly regarded as the outbreak of the American Revolution in April, 1775, could thus easily outmatch whatever naval force the colonies might have been able to scrape together on short notice. This, Paine argued in paragraph three, would continue to be the case should the colonies agree to a negotiated settlement and return to the British fold; Britain’s naval power would continue to grow and future prospects for a potential American challenge would continue to diminish. Indeed, the process would be accelerated and rendered nigh-irreversible so long as American timber continued to be harvested by the British shipbuilding industry. This did not, however, need always be the case. It was possible, Paine suggested, while America’s resources were still her own, to create a native naval establishment set to rival the Royal Navy.

Population was on the colonists’ side. So long as American trade was hamstrung by British blockades, and it most certainly was, the resulting economic stagnation made for an abundance of unemployed young men doubtless eager to be put to work. The creation of a Continental Navy would do just that, at the same time it catalysed any number of other industries from shipbuilding to rope-making to the manufacture of arms and ammunition. This, it seems, was Paine’s “unified theory” of war, economics and population; “the diminution of trade affords an army, and the necessities of an army create a new trade.” This was a characterization of war, or as Paine explained it naval war, as a kind of economic stimulus. The creation and supply of a navy would help grow the economy, he declared, and the expansion of the economy would help support and increase the navy. Neither side of this equation could function, however, without first separating Britain and the colonies so that the latter could be permitted to flourish by making use of its own resources in the pursuit of its own goals.

Surely this seemed a tantalizing prospect to the many Americans whose livelihoods depended on access to foreign markets, and who had already begun to suffer under the effects of British blockades. There was, however, still the matter of the cost of a naval establishment. Without markets in which to sell their raw materials it would likely have seemed impossible to a great many colonists for their various provisional governments to summon the resources necessary to pay for ships and crews at anywhere near the level of the Royal Navy. Paine, unsurprisingly, had an answer at the ready. The actual cost of the British navy, he declared in paragraph six of section four, was in actuality far less than many in America might have imagined. Taking account of calculations made available by certain volumes on British naval history, as well as those put forward in the papers of Josiah Burchett (Secretary of the Admiralty, 1694-1742), Paine proceeded to enumerate exactly what those costs were in a set of neatly organized tables. Rather than replicate said tables here, which I don’t believe would be of great benefit to anyone, I’ll suffice with a handful of key extracts.

The total cost of building a ship of each designated rate (a category based on crew compliment and armament) was based, Paine explained, on the sum of her, “masts, yards, sails and rigging, together with a portion of eight months boatswain’s and carpenter’s seas-stores.” Within this framework he reckoned that a first-rate (100 guns) would cost approximately £35,500, a third-rate (70 guns) would clock in at £17,800, and a sixth-rate (20 guns) would consume £3,700. Taking these price points, and the various rates between them, as a basis, Paine calculated that the total cost of the Royal Navy at its “greatest glory” in 1757 during the Seven Years’ War was something on the order of £3,500,000.

This was, in 1776, a far from insubstantial amount of money, the prospect of having to equal it made all the more daunting by the relative crudity of the American financial sector at the end of the 18th century. Fortunately for the citizens of the Thirteen Colonies, Paine argued, they would not have to in order to successfully challenge the British in naval affairs. For one, he asserted, America’s natural resources and existing industries were already particularly geared towards shipbuilding. “Tar, timber, iron, and cordage are her natural produce,” he wrote. “We need go abroad for nothing.” Naval powers of the highest esteem like Britain and the Netherlands were blessed with no such natural abundance; they were forced to import most of the raw materials required to construct and maintain the fleets upon which their empires depended. The colonies could thus avoid the additional costs associated with purchasing the necessary implements at the same time the construction of a fleet would serve to catalyse the slumping American economy and help reopen avenues for trade. “We ought to view the building of a fleet as an article of commerce,” he lectured in paragraph nine, “it being the natural manufactory of this country. It is the best money we can lay out. A navy when finished is worth more than it cost.” Supplied with the requisite facts and figures, this was doubtless a forceful argument. Not only did it take a frank account of the actual costs of naval construction and supply, making use of data gathered by experts in that field, but it also spoke to the contemporary economic situation in the Thirteen Colonies and the skills possessed by a large number of their inhabitants. “Men of war,” Paine recalled in paragraph ten, “of seventy and eighty guns were built forty years ago in New-England, and why not the same now? Ship-building is America’s greatest pride, and in which, she will in time excel the whole world.”

Were this not advantage enough, Paine also set about deconstructing the myth of British naval invincibility in paragraph thirteen of section four by once more deploying concise, logical argument in order to sweep away what he regarded as ill-founded preconceptions. On paper, he admitted, the Royal Navy was indeed a force without peer. Its list of vessels was “long and formidable.” Reality, however, did not bear out its fearsome image. Less than a tenth, Paine asserted, of the ships on the British Navy’s active list were fit for service at any given time. Of those, many were virtually non-existent and had simply yet to be decommissioned. Furthermore, of those active vessels which were in a good state of repair and presently in service, something less than a fifth were deployed to any given station. The size of the late-18th century British Empire being what it was, Pain reminded his audience in paragraph thirteen, the Royal Navy was forced to stretch itself across a wide expanse of territory from Asia to Africa to the Mediterranean to the West Indies and North America. At no point could the entirety of the British Navy be brought to bear on a single opponent, and so its reputation for invincibility was thus something of an illusion. Americans, Paine chided, “have talked as if we should have the whole of it to encounter at once, and for that reason, supposed, that we must have one as large.” In fact, he continued, an American navy only a twentieth the size of Britain’s would be more than adequate to challenge the latter’s vaunted superiority. Not only did the relatively small size of American territory ensure that a prospective naval force could avoid being scattered and thus rendered of limited use, but the proximity of the Thirteen Colonies to the British West Indies would allow a locally-stationed and supplied American navy to cut Britain off from its Caribbean territories and thus deny it access to valuable resources.

As in previous instances in Common Sense, this was not a very complicated argument. Britain’s navy was very large, but its size was proportionate to the size of the empire it needed to patrol. Regardless of how highly Parliament may have valued the goal of bringing the rebellious colonies back into the fold as of January, 1776, it would have been effectively impossible – or at least terribly inadvisable – for the Admiralty to pull every ship from every station and send them to reinforce the colonial blockade. British possessions in India, Australia, and notably the West Indies that represented far greater value to the empire required constant protection; only a small handful of vessels not required on station could thus be spared. Basic knowledge of the scope of Britain’s global possessions and a glance at a globe would doubtless have borne this logic out. Paine’s earlier assertion, however, that the theoretical size of the Royal Navy was augmented by including unfit or non-existent vessels, required more specialized knowledge to fully grasp.

Allow me.  

Naval logistics has long been a complicated endeavour. Vessels that reach the end of their service life, either through sustaining cost-prohibitive damage or becoming technologically obsolete, are put through a process by which they are first rendered inactive before being decommissioned. During their period of deactivation, while they are being stripped of useful materials and their crew is slowly reassigned, they still technically retain their commission and thus continue to appear in formal naval listings. Consequently, at any given time a list of the commissioned vessels in a nation’s navy may not represent the actual number of active, armed, and assigned ships. Due to bureaucratic inefficiencies, incompetence, or the slow pace of multi-part decision-making processes in an era of purely analog communications, the Royal Navy at the end of the 18th century doubtless hosted a sizeable number of what might be called “ghost ships” that had been mislaid, forgotten about, or whose decommissioning had been delayed. For whatever reason Paine did not see fit to provide this information to his readers, perhaps relaying on those with naval experience – not an insignificant proportion – to understand and explain to their peers. In any case, the point itself is a valid one; speaking once again to the realities of naval administration, Paine hoped to show the Royal Navy for what it really was, and not for what so many imagined it to be.         
                  
Their opponents’ strengths or weaknesses aside, Paine seemed eager to communicate that the American colonies were uniquely blessed as to their situation regarding the creation of a navy. Few nations, he declared, possessed the manpower, materials, and access to viable ports in equal enough measure to make the creation of a truly formidable naval force possible. America, however, had been fated to possess all three in such ideal proportion as to make the absence of a naval establishment an unpardonable waste. As to the monetary expense involved, the size of which Paine did not attempt to deny, the colonies were again well-suited to bear the burden. This was because, Paine claimed in what I cannot help but think of as a harbinger of Hamiltonian rhetoric, the colonies did not possess the onerous financial responsibilities carried by military powers like Britain and its various rivals. “Debts,” he explained in paragraph five, “We have none; and whatever we may contract on this account will serve as a glorious memento of our virtue.” As Paine conceived of it, this put the colonies at a distinct advantage over Britain. While Parliament was at least partially constrained in whatever actions it took by the need to continually service the debts that had been acquired in decades past, the colonies and the Continental Congress operated under no such burdens. Their revenues, and whatever they managed to borrow, could be wholly directed towards the various facets of the war effort.

While this was a slightly wobbly argument – Britain having no trouble borrowing money at favourable interest rates and the colonies possessing no credit history to speak of – the way Paine summed it up speaks once again to his mastery of concise rhetoric and penchant for combining utilitarian and moral arguments. Whatever debts the colonies acquired in their pursuit of independence, he declared, would be well worth the establishment of a stable form of government and a sound constitution. If separation was not the ultimate aim, however, would it be acceptable to incur similar costs in pursuit of a favourable return to the status quo? “To expend millions for the sake of getting a few vile acts repealed,” he lamented, “and routing the present ministry only, is unworthy the charge, and is using posterity with the utmost cruelty; because it is leaving them the great work to do, and a debt upon their backs, from which, they derive no advantage.”

Though by January, 1776 the colonies had yet to take on even a fraction of the debts they would accrete over the course of the Revolutionary War, Paine already furnished his fellow colonists with vivid depictions of the abundant possibilities afforded by America’s virgin financial status and the crushing moral weight of allowing said possibilities to go to waste. To a degree, it must be said, this was putting the cart before the horse. War between the colonies and the Crown had been ongoing for less than a year, and a formal declaration of independence was another six months distant. These facts, however, did not serve Paine’s purpose. To realize what he knew needed to be accomplished, to lay the groundwork for a successful defence of American liberties and the creation of a stable continental government, the colonial populations needed to be propelled to action. Neither a philosophical treatise on the nature the social contract, nor a dry recitation of the pros and cons of continued British rule, would do the trick. Paine knew this better than most of his fellow revolutionaries, and peppered Common Sense  with an appropriate, and effective, mix of plain reasoning, utilitarian analysis and a distinct sense of urgency.                             

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